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At the beginning of 2013, due to the outbreak of downstream lighting and backlight demand, the entire industry chain of the LED industry continued to be high. According to DisplaySearch statistics, in 2008, the global NB backlight penetration rate was only 16 and the penetration rate rose to 89 in 2010. In 2010, the large-size TV backlight penetration began. In 2010, only 10 or so could not penetrate, from 2011 to 40, 2012. 70, 2013 is expected to be above 90. Beginning in 2013, with the dual promotion of policies and price cuts, the lighting penetration rate has risen rapidly from 10, and the economy has continued to rise. The market for hundreds of millions of lighting will gradually open.
Exploring the inflection point of LED lighting demand, the result of the integration of policy assistance and price marketization. The government's promotion of the ban on whitening, the government's procurement of LED street lights, took the lead in promoting the development of the entire LED lighting. Technological advances and business innovations have reduced the price of LED lighting, giving consumers the power and ability to consume.
At the beginning of the period, the government promoted the development of LED outdoor lighting through municipal procurement. In the future, the government will stimulate the development of civilian lighting through terminal consumption subsidies.
With the advancement of technology and commercial innovation, the price of LED bulbs continues to decline. At present, the market price of LED bulbs is 0-15 higher than that of energy-saving lamps. Since LED lamps are more efficient, energy-saving and environmentally friendly, the penetration rate will be higher. constantly improving.
In the future, outdoor lighting will continue to grow under large-scale government bidding. Commercial lighting is currently booming. The future billions of markets are still in consumer terminals. With the advancement of technology and product design concepts, the price of LED lighting products will drop sharply. The indoor LED lighting penetration rate in mainland China will explode in the next two years. At present, grassroots research results show that LED lighting manufacturers are working overtime, traditional energy-saving lamp dealers are distributing goods in large areas, and the penetration rate of LED lights in sales channels is as high as 90, and civilian lighting is ready to go.
The LED industry is characterized by high efficiency and environmental protection. In the early stage of development, it was driven by external forces. The government policy promoted the vigorous expansion of production capacity, the competition continued to intensify, and the decline in gross profit margin accelerated. The general decline in the gross profit margin of each LED listed company in the third quarter also confirmed this point. With the reduction of policy subsidies, the profit model will shift from government subsidies to marketization, and industry consolidation will accelerate in the future.
The upstream link is driven by capital technology and has the highest concentration. Downstream lighting has recently developed rapidly. There are many new entrants. The price of lighting has not been established through low-cost market changes. The quality of products is uneven. In the future, as the consumer concept is mature, the brand will determine the value.
In the past few years, as the industry is generally optimistic about the LED market prospects, the capacity expansion rate is far greater than the demand growth rate, so the gross profit margin continues to decline. In the past year, LED prices have dropped to a reasonable level (not much different from traditional energy-saving lamps). With the outbreak of demand, there is little room for future decline. The gross profit margin is close to the lower limit. The gross profit margin of the chip segment has stopped falling and rebounded. Limited, industry leading enterprises will obviously benefit.
With the increasing number of LED companies, enterprises with capital advantages realize vertical integration of industries through the establishment of branches (subsidiaries), mergers and acquisitions, and strategic alliances.
For upstream chip companies, they have high technical barriers and can quickly penetrate downstream through capital advantages. Upstream chip makers are more likely to expand into packaging and application through acquisition and self-built companies.
For midstream packaging companies, the technical barriers are relatively low, and it is generally easier to expand to downstream lighting companies. In the early days of the LED industry, Taiwanese package manufacturers cut into the upstream chip through the merger of shares. In the current environment, this method of mergers and acquisitions is becoming more and more difficult. Capital-owned enterprises usually achieve upstream penetration through self-built methods.
For downstream application companies, enjoy high profit margins at both ends of the smile curve, generally do not expand to low-profit packaging links, and more are extended to high-margin chip links through strategic alliances. 