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In recent years, the LED industry has been optimistic about the rapid expansion of the industry and the market scale. However, this seemingly prosperous prosperity has caused many industry giants in the LED industry to feel deeply worried. Some insiders said that most of the downstream customers of LED companies are paying more and more credits, the payment cycle is getting longer and longer, and the phenomenon of arrears in the industry chain is getting more and more serious.
The reporter learned from the second CEO Forum of the 2013 High-tech LED Conference held in Guangzhou recently that in the past two years, the LED industry has had a serious overcapacity, and the tide of bankruptcy has frequently hit. At the beginning of this year, with the opening of the LED lighting market, the entire industry chain is booming. Despite the surge in orders from companies, the fierce price war has run through the entire industry chain.
Zhang Xiaofei, the head of Gaogong LED Industry Research Institute and chairman of Gaogong LED, even asserted that in the next five years, the entire industry will face a major reshuffle of the industry, and non-listed companies will be basically eliminated or integrated.
Controversy: The industry will be born in the next five years?
In 2018, will there be a LED company that can achieve 10 billion? At the second CEO Forum held on November 25th, 20 LED industry leaders including Philips, Qinshang Optoelectronics, Tsinghua Tongfang and Hongli Broadcasting and Television Co., Ltd. even gambled on this issue.
It is reported that G20-LED is a model that creatively imitates the international G20 summit. In the sub-sectors of the upper, middle and lower reaches of the entire industry chain, select the leading companies at home and abroad, and in the concept, society, and the industry responsible for some people together to form the G20 organization.
The views are basically divided into two factions.
Zhou Xuejun, director of marketing for Philips Asia, believes that in the Chinese market, Philips lighting sales are less than 6 billion, and Ray's is only 3 billion. If sales are to be 10 billion, he doubts. He believes that in the future, Philips' monopoly in the field of fluorescent lamps will not appear again. With the advent of LEDs, it will be smaller than before, and the opportunities it creates may appear in some of the best companies in the market segment. The level of Chinese companies is almost the same. It is very difficult to eat each other.
Ai Xiaoming, CEO of Osram China, believes that LED sales in China exceed 10 billion, which is only a matter of time. From now on, in 2018, the market has 100 billion, and 10 billion is only 1/10. So more than 10 billion is possible, and it may be from domestic companies, if it is technically good. Because any industry cannot be so dispersed as it is today, it is ultimately concentrated, forming industrial integration, and after integration, there will be 10 billion enterprises.
Zhang Xiaofei, secretary-general of the forum, agreed with Ai Xiaoming's point of view that the next five years will be a new round of industrial reshuffle, with most upstream companies dying and the survival rate is only about 30. Among the 1750 homes in the middle reaches, 40. In the downstream sector, the death rate of the entire LED lighting company exceeds 50, and the proportion of LED lighting companies will exceed the proportion of traditional lighting. In terms of the intensity of industry integration, it is not difficult to have a tens of billions of companies.
Tan Changlin, general manager of TSMC Solid State Lighting, said that it is impossible to have a 10 billion-level enterprise. Because it is changing all day long, you can invest in this automation, and tomorrow may change, so integration is the best path. It is not the integration of industry, but the integration of upstream and downstream technologies.
It is predicted that non-listed companies will be basically eliminated in the next five years. In fact, the phenomenon of industry integration has already appeared. This year some companies have started the integration strategy of the company. Dehao Runda acquired NVC Lighting for vertical integration of the upstream and downstream of the industry chain; Sanan Optoelectronics plans to acquire Taiwan's Yuyuan Optoelectronics and the US lumens, both horizontally and vertically. Recently, Liard announced the acquisition of Jinda Lighting, hoping to use the latter's technological advantages, project experience, channel resources and customer resources to accelerate the expansion of the company's LED lighting business segment.
But in Zhang Xiaofei's view, 2014 is a truly hands-on year, and 2013 is a year of moving. The number of companies focusing on LED sales will reach its peak, and the total number of LED industry enterprises will reach its peak, and market competition will begin to be fierce. Some enterprises will be integrated and withdrawn. The channels in the circulation and provincial and first-tier cities will be more clear, but the third- and fourth-tier cities and county-level markets still have the opportunity to enter, and enterprises begin to find their own market segments. .
2015 is a node, industry integration is very fierce, channel construction will be more cruel, and the overall market layout is basically completed.
In 2016, a large number of middle and lower reaches companies withdrew, and the differentiation between the middle and lower reaches will be particularly obvious, and they will begin to clean up the integrated battlefield.
In 2017, it will be a year of decisive victory. It is not necessarily a leader, but you must stand in your own market and occupy your own space in some market segments to survive.
In 2018, the market's basic supply and demand balance was reached, that is, the dynamic supply and demand balance, the market is in a fine-tuned state, but the market size of the integrated lighting industry began to shrink, and a new round of reshuffle is about to begin.
Most companies that have been shuffled and whose turnover is below 10 million are unlikely to survive in the future. Non-listed companies are basically eliminated or integrated, and non-listed companies exclude listed companies after the IPO opens next year. Now it is different from the past, the situation has been changing, and the country’s financial policy is changing. Non-listed companies, I believe there will be many difficulties. Zhang Xiaofei said.
Wang Lianghai, vice president of Tsinghua Tongfang, holds the same view. He believes that from the industrial stage, the first stage of the industry integration route is the price war, and it is about to enter an era of product performance ratio competition, and finally transferred to patent competition.