Industry predicts mixed 2011 car market

Is the Dongguan auto market happy in 2011?

■ New Express reporter Ye Yixian's 2011 Dongguan auto market is still happy? This question comes from most Dongguan car dealers and Dongguan car consumers. On the one hand, some industry experts predict that the rapid increase in car sales in 2010 will make the auto market saturation in 2011, coupled with the exit of favorable policies and the growing cost of car-carrying vehicles, adding to the “unhappiness” component. . At the same time, on the other hand, the performance of luxury cars and new energy vehicles in Dongguan has been unanimously favored by car dealers and consumers, while the increasingly compact distribution arrangement of car dealers in Dongguan has also revealed that car manufacturers are facing the Dongguan auto market. There is confidence in the "happiness" factor. "Unhappiness" and "happiness" are mixed, and in the industry's view, it will be the main feature of the 2011 Dongguan auto market.

The car market may experience negative growth. “The market will not always run at a high speed. The past two years have been abnormal development. In 2011, the auto market is optimistic that there will be some growth, but the increase is estimated to be about 10%, and even some brands will show negative growth.” Recently, Qiu Dongdong, Beijing Hyundai South China Regional Manager, said in a year-end summary in Dongguan.

This reporter learned that auto companies that hold this view accounted for almost the vast majority. The manufacturers are very cautious, many manufacturers have reduced the growth rate, some auto manufacturers will be 2011 as the adjustment year, most manufacturers have said that the first quarter of 2011, the auto market or there will be negative growth.

"I think different models in different areas should have different performance, but overall there may be negative growth. For example, SUVs, MPVs and some imported models will not be affected by the policy, and may continue to grow, but some small displacement The economical sedan is likely to experience negative growth due to the withdrawal of preferential policies.” Some Dongguan dealers believe that short-term negative growth is not necessarily a bad thing, because it will help auto manufacturers accelerate the progress of automotive technology; it will also benefit Dongguan Auto. The merger, reorganization, and structural adjustment of the marketplace will increase the auto dealers' own management and management level.

Good to leave the market negative Many dealers believe that the policies of car to the countryside and car replacement have already completed the "historical mission", and the sale of cars, especially small-displacement cars, may be affected.

On the one hand, the stimulus policy continues to withdraw. On the other hand, the policy of “pressing” the auto market has to be introduced in succession, including an increase in the tax on vehicles and boats, and various restrictions on travel. According to the draft tax for vehicles and boats, the tax paid by the current 1.6 to 2.0 litres of urban private cars will increase by 0.5 to 9 times. This kind of unbearable weight is being passed on to consumers more and more.

As far as policy favors go, rising oil prices is another bad day. Experts believe that in 2011, the price of gasoline may rise to 8 yuan per liter, and some people who plan to purchase cars may also be discouraged. According to the calculation of the Oriental Oil and Gas Network, when the international average monthly crude oil price (WTI) reaches 110 US dollars, according to the current law of amplitude modulation, the retail price of domestic gasoline (90) may be adjusted to 7.4 yuan/liter, most people want to add The number 93 gasoline will reach around 7.9 yuan/litre, which will probably be an important bottom line for public psychology.

The reporter learned from relevant sources that China Automobile Association expects annual sales of more than 16 million vehicles in the whole year at the beginning of the year. By the second half of the year, the Chinese Automobile Association’s target for the full year will be revised again and again: 16 million vehicles and 17 million vehicles, up to 18 million. Vehicle. Adding a million cars a month is a miracle in the history of the world’s automobiles. The rapid increase in the number of car ownership has a lot of hidden troubles. In particular, traffic management, road safety, and environmental governance in large and medium-sized cities have not kept pace. The “grabbing car” tide actually overdrawn the market demand in 2011. Once the tide ebbs, the market will experience a stagnant trend. It can be imagined that the start of the auto market in 2011, whether compared with the previous month or compared with the same period of last year, both have a very high probability of negative growth. Zhang Dong, general manager of Dongguan Dong Fu Motors, said that the market outlook for 2011 is not optimistic, at least not blindly optimistic.

Owners are all parking spaces "parking fees are so expensive." The white-collar workers who work in the first international company in Nancheng District, Dongguan show most of the distress of the owners of Dongguan. The cost of car rental increases rapidly, which is proportional to car ownership. The problem of parking is particularly acute. In the past few years, the automobile sales industry in Dongguan is completely called a blowout. The reporter learned from the Dongguan Vehicle Management Bureau that in December 2010, the number of vehicles on the Dongguan Motor Car broke the first 20,000. In the context of a good market environment that continues to support car ownership steadily rising, the contradiction between the cost of car and the amount of car ownership has become increasingly prominent. Dongguan car owners are faced with fewer and fewer parking spaces, and they must start thinking about the increasing cost of parking.

A Japanese owner Xiao Yang (a pseudonym) told reporters that his car was purchased in early 2006. At the beginning of the car purchase, Xiao Yang spent most of his expenses on the car's body as fuel costs. The parking fee was basically zero when the company was at the time. The office building has free parking and is well-located, and his residence has free roadside parking. However, due to the shortage of vehicles, the free parking lot below the office building of the company simply cannot meet the parking needs of the people in the building. The parking fee for office buildings exceeding 5 yuan per day allows Xiao Yang to spend about 200 yuan more per month. In addition, the free on-street parking space near the community has already been filled with cars, Xiao Yang can only choose to park in the parking lot of the community, so as to spend another 150 yuan. Such an example can be found around us a lot, such as the road congestion near the Crystal City South Building, because the owners want to minimize the cost of parking.

Hi-luxury SUVs stand out from the crowd. “A lot of luxury cars, especially SUVs, have been scheduled for May and June of 2011,” said the person in charge of the Mercedes-Benz dealership Dongguan Renfu Huaxing in an interview with reporters recently. The luxury car was in Dongguan. The sales volume had a big increase last year, but due to capacity problems, there were some models that had to be lined up for purchase. According to analysis, this phenomenon will continue to occur in 2011.

This reporter learned that the current major luxury brand SUV models are very prosperous, including Porsche Cayenne [review picture forum], BMW X5, Audi Q5, Audi Q7 [review picture forum], Lexus GX460 and other models must wait on the big Only half a year can mention the car.

In 2010, BMW, Mercedes-Benz, Audi, and Lexus, the four luxury car brands, all performed well in Dongguan. The four brands added up to 7,000 units in Dongguan.

In addition to luxury models, urban off-road vehicles with a price tag of more than 200,000 yuan are also favored by "car owners". GAC Toyota Highlander [review picture forum], Shanghai Volkswagen’s Tiguan [review picture forum], Dongfeng Honda’s CR-V [review picture forum] and other models have been selling well, and some models’ orders have also been extended to 2011 3 - April. According to dealers, there will be more off-road vehicles entering the market in 2011, and sales growth will increase even more.

Analysis of the current situation of the automobile brand to speed up the analysis of the current situation in Dongguan, 2011, the pace of shop layout in Dongguan market will not slow down, the brand will focus on European and American brands. Many brand manufacturers leaders, including FAW Toyota, Guangzhou Automobile Honda and other mainstream Japanese brand manufacturers, said that the expansion in Dongguan in recent years has come to an end and is expected to not open shop expansion in a short time.

In contrast, European and American brands that had been mediocre in Dongguan in previous years began to rejuvenate. With regard to the news that the reporter has collected so far, FAW-Volkswagen, Shanghai Volkswagen and other brands will have new stores in the new year. For luxury cars, BMW and Volvo will also have new dealers.

In this regard, the industry analysis, according to the current layout of Dongguan, Dongfeng Nissan, FAW Toyota, Guangzhou Automobile Honda, Dongfeng Honda, GAC Toyota and other brands in Dongguan market layout has been relatively mature, the market share is relatively stable. While FAW-Volkswagen, Shanghai Volkswagen, Chevrolet and other brands have only two or three dealers in Dongguan, facing the ever-growing sales, the market space is still relatively large.

The new energy policy has been darling for a new year, and many policies on car preferences have been withdrawn from the market. Only the vehicle energy saving subsidy policy has continued to be implemented. The voice of the industry indicates that the direction of the policy in 2011 will be tilted toward new energy vehicles.

The reporter learned that at the end of last year, the "Decision of the State Council on Accelerating the Cultivation and Development of Strategic Emerging Industries" was introduced, which listed new energy vehicles as one of the seven major industries under development at the current stage, and proposed to increase fiscal and financial support. Strength. Some industry insiders speculated that many policies that spurred auto consumption in 2011 gradually withdrew from the market, and it was very likely that the policies that spurred the development of new energy vehicles will be intensively introduced. Although the development of new energy vehicles is still a bit far from the average consumer, there are also a variety of policies that are closely related to the purchase of cars and vehicles. The draft of the taxation adjustment for cars and boats that caused a great deal of turmoil was an example.