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The IEA, headquartered in Paris, is currently assessing the status of the world’s 400 largest oil fields. This is the first time the agency has conducted such an assessment. The results of the assessment will not be announced until November, but the basic situation is very clear: the future of crude oil supply may be much more intense than previously expected.
The pessimistic forecast of crude oil supply by the IEA may further aggravate oil market turmoil. Crude oil prices have now exceeded US$130 per barrel, which has doubled from a year ago. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, benchmark crude oil prices hit a new high for the fourth consecutive day on Wednesday, closing at $133.17 a barrel, up 3.3%.
Over the years, IEA has been predicting that the supply of crude oil and other liquid fuels will gradually increase, in keeping with the growing demand, and has predicted that by 2030 oil production will increase from the current approximately 87 million barrels to 116 million barrels. . However, the IEA is now beginning to worry that old oil fields and declining investment may make it difficult for major oil companies to increase their daily output to more than 100 million barrels over the next 20 years.
The IEA decided to conduct a rigorous investigation of oil supplies rather than just investigate the demand as in the past. This also reflects the growing concern within its and other institutions that supplies in oil-producing regions may not be able to meet future demand.
In an interview with the Wall Street Journal, IEA chief economist and head of the research project Fatih Birol said that the required oil investment may far exceed people’s expectations. This situation is very dangerous. .
The IEA's forecast has received widespread attention from the oil industry, Wall Street investment banks, and major oil-consuming countries that provide research funding.
At the same time, the conclusions of the IEA may also be supported by those who advocate the expansion of the scale of exploitation in such areas as the United States continental shelf and the Alaskan National Wildlife Refuge.
The IEA hired 25 researchers who tried to reveal some of the little-known secrets of the oil industry by evaluating the production status of large oil fields in Venezuela, Mexico, Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Iraq. The supply of these fields accounts for more than two-thirds of the global daily production.
The results of the IEA assessment will not be completely accurate. Because the major oil-producing countries including Venezuela, Iran, and China are not involved, while Saudi Arabia and other countries usually fail to disclose the detailed production data of each oil field as state secrets, the specific output of these oil fields is unknown. In order to compensate for the lack of these data, the IEA will use computer modeling methods to estimate. The IEA will also collect information from IHS Inc., the US Geologic Survey, several oil and oil service companies, and the National Petroleum Council. IHS Inc. is a large data and analytics service provider based in Colorado, USA.
However, the IEA's assessment direction coincides with the increasingly pessimistic attitude of supply expressed by managers of some large oil companies in recent months. More and more people in the oil industry support the “peak-oil†theory, that is, as suppliers cannot replace old depleted oil fields with enough new oil fields, the overall output will hardly increase, and oil production will increase. Peak in the coming years. All this has prompted Wall Street investment banks to raise their forecasts for long-term oil prices.
Goldman Sachs Group Inc. recently predicted that oil prices may reach 140 US dollars per barrel this summer, and the average price next year may reach 200 US dollars, which has aroused widespread media attention. Such high oil prices will aggravate the inflationary pressure that has already dragged down the world economy and exacerbate the plight of fuel-sensitive industries such as aviation and automobiles.
The IEA's evaluation study shows that it has undergone major changes in future predictions. In the past, the IEA has mainly focused its research on assessing future demand, investigating how much oil may be produced by non-OPEC member countries to meet demand, and assuming that the under-supply portion will be generated by Saudi Arabia, Iran, or Kuwait. OPEC member countries make up.
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IEA warns of possible crisis in oil production in the future
The International Energy Agency (IEA) is preparing to substantially reduce its oil supply forecast, reflecting the more pessimistic demand from the agency for the ability of oil companies to meet their substantial growth.