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In September, the car ushered in the traditional "golden nine silver ten", sales are expected to increase into September, the auto industry ushered in the traditional "golden nine silver ten", sales are expected to be improved. In August, the car dealers' warning index was 51.80%, and the inventory pressure increased compared to July. We believe that the annual sales growth of automobiles in 2014 will be about 8.5%, the income growth of the auto industry will be 15%, and the profit growth will be 20%.
The prices of major raw materials continued to decline except for non-ferrous metals. The prices of major raw materials in the auto industry continued to decline except for non-ferrous metals, and the auto industry's manufacturing costs and operating costs all decreased. Natural rubber and glass prices have dropped significantly, and the automotive industry will continue to enjoy low-cost advantages. In addition, the international crude oil futures prices fell slightly.
Last week, the auto sector performed better than the broader market, and the overall valuation has been restored. Last week, the auto sector performed better than the broader market. Affected by the broader market, all segments have risen to varying degrees, of which passenger cars have risen significantly. The automotive blue chip stocks represented by the industry leader SAIC gained a lot, and the overall valuation of the automobile segment has been restored. However, the current valuation is still low. Under the impetus of urbanization, state-owned enterprise reform and new energy automobile policies, the valuation of the automotive industry is expected to be promising. Has been further improved.
Investment Suggestions The Chinese auto market has entered a stable growth range. The probability of sales growth exceeding 10% in the coming year is small, and it gradually enters the era of auto aftermarket. The era of relying on sales exceeding expectations to drive investment opportunities has passed and more structural investment opportunities have emerged. Energy conservation, environmental protection, electronics, and intelligence have become the future trends. We maintain the "neutral" rating of the automotive industry. The proposal focuses on the structural investment opportunities brought about by the favorable policies for new energy vehicles, while focusing on automotive electronics companies.
Risk Warning 1. More cities implement automobile purchase restriction; 2. Industry favorable policies do not reach expectations; 3. Infrastructure construction does not reach expectations; 4. Macroeconomic declines significantly.