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According to the investment bank, after reaching the lowest point in early 2009, global industrial M&A will recover in 2010, and some transactions frozen due to the global economic recession in 2009 may be revived this year. It is expected that as industrial production begins to pick up in the third and fourth quarters of 2009, the global chemical industry is entering a weak recovery track. In the emerging economies represented by China, India, and Brazil, the chemical industry has continued to increase its ability to use domestic demand to continue to grow, and has gained more shares in the global chemical market. And this difference will increase in the coming years.
Global chemical industry mergers and acquisitions will set off a recovery boom
In this wave of recovery of mergers and acquisitions, western companies will become targets for mergers and acquisitions. Cash-rich Chinese and Middle Eastern companies will become buyers. Companies in the Middle East have the advantages of abundant raw materials and low prices. They are currently seeking investment opportunities in the chemical industry and are inclined to acquire Western companies to obtain advanced technical support.
At the same time, western companies are in a critical period of rationalizing their businesses and are struggling with the weak market demand caused by the financial crisis. It is expected that the demand of the Western chemical industry market will not return to the 2007 level until 2011. In the next year or two, the Western chemical industry will continue to focus on the severe effects of the economic downturn and will not be able to extract energy and cash for large-scale business mergers and acquisitions.
Throughout 2009, private capital buyers bought bonds more actively than they did acquisitions. It is not the best time for private capital companies to conduct mergers and acquisitions. There are not many assets available for sale in the pipeline, and the price of mergers and acquisitions does not prompt the company to sell. The profit before interest, tax, depreciation, amortization and amortization has been greatly restored, which is approximately 7-9 times of the historical price, but it has not been transferred to the M&A market. The income is not good enough to prompt sellers to market, but it will gradually appear in 2010.
Many of the largest chemical companies are not eager to make big deals. As the financial market is sluggish, there are still fewer buyers of assets, and there is no driving force to make bigger deals. By 2015, China will replace the United States as the world's largest producer of chemical products, while capacity expansion in the Middle East will result in the elimination of low-competitive capacity in the European chemical industry. This part of the production capacity accounts for approximately the total European petrochemical capacity. 20%.
The chemical industry as a whole showed a weak recovery in 2010
The improved economic conditions in developed countries drove the chemical industry to gradually go out of the trough. The US, the European Union and Other economies gradually ebbed and began to recover. Individual disposable income, consumer spending, and retail sales in the US all increased in a chain. PMI continued to break through 50 and the economy began to expand. . Benefited from the gradual recovery of the macro economy, the chemical industry in the major developed countries such as the United States, Europe, and Japan gradually emerged from a low point and showed a weak recovery. The chemical industry's production index stabilized, and the year-on-year decline narrowed.
The European Chemical Industry Council (Cefic) said that from the fourth quarter, the European chemical industry began to show a pick-up trend, Cefic predicts that the European chemical industry will increase production by about 5% this year. According to the American Chemical Industry Council (ACC), output of the US chemical industry, which excludes pharmaceutical chemicals, fell by 9.4% last year, and this year it will increase by 3% from last year, but it is still difficult to reach the level before the economic recession. The financial crisis reduced the production of chemical products in the United States and Western Europe by 15% to 16%. According to the current forecast, by the end of this year, the level of European chemical production will not only be 11% lower than in the first quarter of 2008, even more than in 2005. 5% lower.
The economic downturn in the leading downstream industry led to the recovery of the chemical sub-sector. The recovery of car sales will drive up the demand for upstream tires, carbon black and modified plastics; the recovery of textiles will drive the upstream chemical fiber industry chain; the recovery of real estate consumption will drive up the demand for silicone industry; the demand for soda ash and chlor alkali will lag behind the recovery of real estate investment. .
Foreign analysts also believe that even by 2012~2013, European chemicals production will hardly rebound to the level before the recession. The US chemical production can only be restored to its previous level only if it grows steadily for 3 years at an average annual growth rate of 3% to 4%. As the domestic market demand is expected to be in a state of depression for a long period of time, chemical producers in developed countries have begun to cut their capital investment in the country. Multinational corporations have built most of their chemical projects in developing countries, thus making emerging economies increasingly powerful in the global chemical market.
Global industrial mergers and acquisitions in 2010 to welcome a weak recovery
In the past 2009, the economic recession caused by the financial crisis has greatly changed the performance of the chemical industry in developed and developing countries. The chemical industries in countries such as Western Europe, North America and Japan are still struggling with the harsh economic environment. According to relevant reports, the activity of large-scale M&A transactions in the global chemical industry is expected to return to 2006 and 2007 levels within two years.