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In recent years, China’s auto exports have continued to grow at a high rate, and commercial vehicles are still the main exporters: namely, trucks, large and medium-sized buses, and special-purpose vehicles. The export volume of commercial vehicles accounts for 65% of the total automobile exports, and the export amount accounts for 72% of the total. According to the latest statistics, from January to August this year, the cumulative number of auto exports was 354,900, an increase of 65.21% year-on-year, and the cumulative foreign exchange earned through exports was US$4.102 billion, an increase of 118.5% year-on-year. Among the major auto export categories, commercial vehicles have become the main force, of which the total number of trucks exported was 146,600, an increase of 52.63% year-on-year; and the cumulative number of passenger cars exported was 48,100, an increase of 233.64% year-on-year. The export of "special-purpose vehicles" with high value is also very prominent. The export volume accounts for only 5.28% of the total number of auto exports in China, but the export amount accounts for 28.65% of the total amount. The number, amount, and year-on-year growth of exports exceeded all the previous year.
The acceleration of export speeds for trucks, large and medium-sized buses and special-purpose vehicles in the commercial vehicle sector has not only allowed manufacturers to see a huge global potential market demand, but also felt that the competitiveness of self-owned commercial vehicles is becoming increasingly apparent.
Obvious advantages
At present, the export of domestic commercial vehicles has the following advantages. First, the core competitiveness of China's manufacturing industry is labor costs. China's labor costs are equivalent to 1/32 of the United States and 1/20 of Japan. Secondly, after years of development, a relatively sound upstream and downstream industrial chain for the production of commercial vehicles has been formed in China. Third, China's commercial vehicle manufacturing technology is mature. Fourth, commercial vehicle companies have independent intellectual property rights and independent brands. Fifth, domestic commercial vehicles are more suitable for the needs of developing countries. Sixth, China and developing countries have friendly political relations and continuously developing economic ties.
Bus demand is huge
According to statistics, in August this year, the number of passenger cars exported was 90,500, an increase of 15.49% over the previous month and a year-on-year increase of 176.25%. The passenger car industry is currently dominated by its own brands. The pattern is relatively stable, with strong cost-effective advantages and international competitive advantages.
In the next five years, international large and medium-sized passenger cars will generally maintain a steady growth. Among them, the demand for passenger cars in Western Europe and North America is basically saturated, the demand in Eastern Europe is huge, and the number of passenger car renewal and retention is large, of which Russia is the main market; Oceania’s strong market demand, the fastest growing markets in Africa and the Middle East, will become the largest increase.
The economic strength of the demanding regions matches the prices of Chinese passenger cars. At the same time, the population of these countries has a greater demand for passenger cars. Taken together, the demand for large and medium-sized coaches in Asia, Eastern Europe, Africa, and the Middle East is relatively large. The total demand for domestic passenger car companies in Eastern Europe, South America, and other regions is approximately 165,000, and China’s passenger car exports have a huge potential market. It is estimated that the total global passenger car demand will reach 250,000 by 2010. With scale and cost advantages, Chinese passenger cars will gradually expand their exports in Eastern Europe, South America, Africa and the Middle East.
Leading companies Yutong Bus and Jinlong Automobile will fully benefit from the growth of domestic and international demand in the industry. Yutong and Jinlong have the potential to become world-class passenger car companies. Golden Dragon Motors is the main beneficiary of China's light passenger export acceleration. Its holding company Xiamen Jinlv Haishi series light passengers and body companies producing light passenger cars are expected to surpass expectations this year.
The driving force of heavy cargo growth
All along, China’s heavy cargo products have always dominated the export of Chinese automotive products because of its technological capabilities and competitive price advantage. According to the statistics of the China Automobile Association, the number of trucks exported in August this year was 23,700, an increase of 29.47% from the previous month and an increase of 41.19% year-on-year; according to the amount of exports, the export volume of goods carried was 235 million US dollars, accounting for 30.83 of the total export value. %. Trucks still rank first in China's auto exports. The truck industry is in a clear superior position in the auto R&D field in China. With the increasingly frequent exchanges with the international market, the gap between China's trucking companies in research and development capabilities and manufacturing processes is gradually narrowing. At present, some trucking companies have made expanding overseas markets the top priority for next year.
Despite the rapid growth of heavy cargo sales since the beginning of the year, the cyclical nature of the heavy cargo industry has caused many industry insiders to predict in advance that the growth of heavy cargo sales will suffer from fluctuations in the industry's economic climate.
In the second half of this year, due to the month-on-month increase in base figures of the same period of last year, the monthly sales growth will gradually decline, and the growth of heavy cargo sales will show greater volatility. Judging from the history of heavy cargo sales, 2007 was the second year of the “Eleventh Five-Year Planâ€. Most of the infrastructure investment projects started in 2007, and the start-up of infrastructure projects also stimulated the sales of heavy goods.
Does the expected end of the economy bring heavy losses to the heavy cargo industry? Most people in the industry are more optimistic and believe that exports will be an important growth driver for the Chinese heavy industry. The reasons are:
First, domestic and foreign manufacturers have a big price gap between heavy cargoes. The domestic heavy cargo price is only 1/4 to 1/3 of the foreign price, while in the global medium and heavy cargo production distribution, China accounts for 22%. It is the world's major heavy cargo. Production base, strength can not be underestimated.
Second, under the expectation of a possible fall in the growth rate of heavy cargo in 2008, leading players in the industry such as CNHTC and Shaanxi Zhongqi, etc. can still maintain growth. The decline in the growth rate of the entire industry is mainly reflected in the growth rate of heavy cargo sales of some enterprises. The year-on-year decline in the number of declines or absolute numbers has decreased, and China's heavy trucks and Shaanxi Heavy Duty Trucks, which are more than 15 tons of leading companies, can still achieve year-on-year growth in sales volume through the expansion of scale and export scale. When domestic demand weakens, the increase in exports will be effective. Resist the risks of the industry cycle.
Light and micro-exports grow steadily
Through the development in recent years, China’s export of light and micro cargo (≤5t trucks) has also become a new force for China’s auto exports. From January to August this year, the cumulative export volume of light and micro cargoes was 54,672 units, which accounted for 37.45% of the total exports of goods vehicles; the trade volume of light and micro-goods was 344 million US dollars, accounting for 28.47% of the total value of the total exports of goods vehicles. The importance of light and micro-exports in China's auto exports has gradually emerged.
The steady growth of the export market for light and micro goods stems from the strong performance of light and micro production enterprises in China. These companies have also tasted the sweetness of the light and micro-export market while creating brilliant business. Fukuda, Dongfeng, Jianghuai, Zhongxing, Chang'an, and other major exporters of light and micro-cargo products also rank among the top in the sales volume of the corresponding models of the China Automobile Association. In the favorable export environment, major domestic light and micro-production companies have invested more in product exports.
Jianghuai Automobile has made exporting as one of the key points, transformed the service marketing model, adjusted the organizational structure and management methods, and established the overseas business division under the original sales company as an independent company. In terms of product structure, Jianghuai has also adopted A single light cargo export spreads across the entire product line.
ZTE’s pace seems to be faster in the development of overseas markets. In the first half of this year, ZTE's exports have embarked on a routine development path and achieved two major breakthroughs. The first breakthrough was the development of the U.S. market. ZTE's existing U.S. technical experts have more than 20 people and are all involved in the daily development of products. Currently, ZTE’s new generation of products has passed safety standards for collisions in the United States. This shows that ZTE’s products have completed a substantive work from product development to market demonstration in the process of going to the US market. Another breakthrough was the breakthrough in export products. ZTE’s 500 U.S. shipments of U.S. exports to Ukrainian products in recent days differed from most of the previous export products in that they were cheap and low-end products. The leather goods exported this time were ZTE’s high-end products. Equivalent to more than RMB 90,000.
Light and light cargo companies have begun to look to overseas markets where development prospects are even broader. In the development of the past two years, China’s target markets for light and micro-exports have involved the Russian Federation, the Middle East, Southeast Asia, North Africa, West Africa, Central and South America, and other countries and regions. The export form has also gradually developed from a single vehicle product export. To combine the export of KD parts, export of technology and export of capital.
Deficiency
Although China's commercial vehicle exports have maintained a good momentum of growth, some areas still have inherent deficiencies: insufficient research and development stamina, insufficient talent pools, lax product quality control systems, huge follow-up funding gaps, and lack of brand building on the right track. Vehicle exports bring a lot of variables. However, the above factors are only concomitant in the development of history and can only be resolved during the development process. It is by no means an effort overnight. The more immediate problem is that the external factors that restrict the export of domestic automobiles have become increasingly prominent.
1. With the increasing frequency of international automobile and logistics transactions and the increasing volume of transportation, domestic exports are generally faced with the problem of logistics transportation. Mainly manifested as lack of transport capacity of automobile ro-ro ships. Although there were orders and products were produced but could not be shipped, this phenomenon was particularly prominent in the first quarter. The Ro-ro ship is a special type of transport ship, which is specially used for the water transport of the whole vehicle. Compared with the general way of water transport, it has the advantages of high loading and unloading efficiency, low requirements for the wharf, and transportation cost saving; and ordinary container transportation. By comparison, its transportation costs can be reduced by 20% and 30%, and the vehicle breakage rate is low. In the early years, domestic autos were mainly used to meet the domestic consumer market. Auto-robots have always been the patents of foreign auto giants to enter the Chinese market. In addition, they are expensive. So far, auto-robots are still a favorite of domestic ocean-going companies. With the rapid growth of the export of self-owned brands, the bottleneck of automobile roll-on ships has become increasingly prominent.
Secondly, domestic automakers' orders currently obtained abroad are basically small-volume and non-scheduled contracts. The majority of foreign large-scale ro-ro ships can load more than 6,000 vehicles. The huge contrast between the two has led to domestic auto exports. Utilize the remaining space of Japanese and Korean companies to assemble export. One has a high marginal cost and lacks bargaining power. Secondly, Japanese and South Korean shipowners take occasional stops at China's ports. This in a sense causes domestic automobile exports to rely on the weather to eat for a long period of time, and it is difficult to grasp the timing of exports. Lifeblood control is in the hands of shipping companies in Japan, South Korea, Europe and the United States. China’s China Shipping Group once purchased a second-hand ro-ro ship from Japan. However, it is difficult for one ship to match routes, and it takes more than 30 days to reach a destination in the Middle East from the domestic alone. In addition, domestic companies have small orders and destinations. It is too dispersive and ultimately difficult to operate. It is not allowed to rent the ship back to the Japanese shipowners. It fails to break the Japanese and South Korean shipping companies’ right to speak on China’s auto exports.
Thirdly, the destinations of China's commercial vehicle exports are mainly in the Middle East, Latin America, Africa, and Central Asia. Export cars belong to medium and low-end vehicles. High freight rates drive up the price disadvantage of domestic cars. On the one hand, it is a booming automobile export business, and on the other is the restriction of ro-ro shipping capacity. Domestic ocean-going companies are not simply buying ships. It is a simple matter how to enter into a benign operation to achieve mutual win.
Fourth, as China's market economy status has been increasingly recognized internationally, China has conducted negotiations on free trade areas with many countries and regions. The free trade zone is a new thing for Chinese companies. There is not much to know and less to understand. Most domestic auto companies have just eased from the subsistence and subsistence levels in the market, and there has been a blind spot in the vast sea of ​​international markets. What are the preferential policies for free trade zones and what can companies enjoy? Auto companies are basically black at first sight.
Fifth, due to the small size of the company and the consideration of risk control, domestic commercial vehicle companies do not dare to invest in establishing sales and maintenance channels in the exporting countries. Most of them are authorized to buy out the local dealers. The consequences of this model lead to domestic enterprises. There is a disconnect between consumers and the exporting country. Consumers can't feedback their opinions in the first place, and they can't get the profits from after-sales service.
Sixth, it is still at the strategic stage of trade mode, which is marked by product exports. The unsound after-sales service system is due to the problems associated with this type of trade method. Therefore, large-scale access to the entire automobile market in developed countries has not yet been made in terms of trade methods. Preparation. In terms of technical reserves, in addition to import packages, key components such as commercial vehicle engines, transmissions, and chassis basically use domestic auxiliary products with a relatively low level of overall technology. With the rapid growth of vehicle exports, the low technological content of vehicles will inevitably become a bottleneck restricting China’s auto exports. In terms of industry characteristics, Japan has hybrid electric vehicles (HEV), the United States has fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEV), Brazil has mixed fuels (ethanol), EU has high pressure common rail diesel engine technology, active and passive safety technologies, etc. The automotive industry lacks the characteristics of the above-mentioned national automobile industry.
Seventh, judging from the export situation in recent years, the export structure of commercial vehicle products is irrational, the price of products is too low, the exporting country is decentralized, marketing and service networks are lagging behind, and the lack of brand strategy and other issues have not been well resolved. The gap between brand building and service quality of foreign brands is largely caused by the “internal consumption†among exporting companies.
Suggestions
1. With regard to the lack of capacity of auto-rombar vessels, consideration should be given by the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Commerce to follow the Japanese and South Korean government’s policy support for auto exports, or to adopt tax incentives for shipping companies so that the company can expand its ro-ro fleet size. The so-called troops and horses do not move, food and grass first, only the ro-ro ship is at the forefront, and car exports can be upgraded from a strategic point of view. To solve these problems, it is necessary to hold fewer meetings and implement more, and to show efficiency is the most important thing!
2. When auto companies enter the international market, they can no longer just focus their eyes on cars. They need to consider more policies than automobiles, analyze the international trading environment, avoid exchange rate risks, accurately assess the policy risks of exporting countries, and timely adjust the product structure. And market positioning, making good use of the free trade zone policy, and getting through the negotiation results can greatly promote car exports. At the same time, it also needs a variety of non-car professionals to fill the sales force.
3. Domestic companies must change the concept of heavy sales and light service. The establishment of a brand distribution network directly by the manufacturer will be the development trend of the sales market. It will comprehensively plan sales strategies, establish its own brand sales and service network, and firmly hold the initiative in its own hands. Must consider building its own sales and after-sales service system. Otherwise, one day the overseas distributor suddenly picks up the pick, the situation is not the general passive, and from the long-term perspective of brand building, this step is also not to go
According to the plan of the Ministry of Commerce, the goal of the Chinese auto industry is to achieve 10% of the world's total automobile trade in 10 years, with an export volume of approximately US$120 billion. From the current point of view, the improvement of the quality of automobiles and the improvement of manufacturing processes need to be gradual and time-consuming, and the above external factors can be solved immediately and the sooner the better.
In summary, China's commercial vehicle exports have a larger market space. The core competitiveness of China's manufacturing industry is labor costs, so a certain extent of raw material price increases and RMB appreciation are not enough to have a decisive negative impact on auto exports. The specification of automobile export order is conducive to expanding exports. It is expected that the trend of “going global†for Chinese autos will not change in the near future. Vehicle exports will continue to be dominated by commercial vehicles in the short term, and the export market will be diversified. The export of cars will increase substantially. The total volume of exported vehicles in 2007 will exceed 2006, but the increase will decline. In the long run, the expansion of the vehicle export scale will depend on the change in the trade pattern, the technical content of the vehicle, and the technical input and technical reserves of the domestic automobile industry. Raising independent R&D capability is the only way for auto companies to go abroad.
View related topics: Commercial Vehicle Export Analysis