In the industrial chain of the rubber industry in China, the output value of the tire enterprises accounts for about 70% of the entire industry. In the tire industry, the export trade accounts for about 50% of the total. However, in the past two years, tire companies generally reflected that the impact of the global financial crisis on the world is causing the external environment of China's export trade to deteriorate, and the growth rate of exports has dropped significantly. At the same time, the prices of raw materials in the upstream industries have continued to rise, causing the production and operation of enterprises. Greater pressure. Fan Yanwen, a researcher at Jinyuan Futures Rubber Industry, told Xin Financial News that the manufacturing costs of tire companies could not be successfully converted to the downstream, resulting in a significant decline in corporate profits. Some tire companies have difficulties in production and operation. More than 70% of tire companies only maintain 80% of their production load, and small tire enterprises in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have even lower operating rates. The profit of the industry fell by 16.2% compared with 2010. There were 11 losses of 45 key enterprises across the country, with a loss of 25.6%. Shen Jinrong, chairman of Hangzhou Zhongce Rubber Co., Ltd., the top ten tire industry, also stated at the 2012 China Rubber Annual Conference that the tire industry is experiencing difficulties in operation. This is due in large part to the severe fluctuations in the prices of natural rubber, leading to tire companies. The cost of change is huge and it is difficult to get effective control. Therefore, one of the way out for the healthy development of the rubber industry is to control the upstream raw materials, and the control of raw materials is mainly to control and manage the price of natural rubber. Passive in the fluctuation of rubber price From the historical data of natural rubber market prices, the new financial reporter saw that in February 2011, the price of natural rubber futures on the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose to a record high of 43,000 yuan per ton, while the international spot price of natural rubber also reached 6400 US dollars. / Ton, up more than 70% over the same period in 2010. Although after the impact of European debt crisis and other factors, rubber prices fell, but in February of this year, the spot price of natural rubber is still around 4,000 US dollars / ton, higher than the level of 10% in 2010 over the same period; higher than the level before the financial crisis 35 %. Fan Yanwen, who has been studying the rubber industry chain, told the new financial reporter that tire companies suffer from this process. Natural rubber accounts for approximately 40% of the cost of tire production. In passenger cars, a tire requires approximately 1 kg of natural rubber. . Therefore, the increase in the price of natural rubber has greatly promoted the cost of tires. Tire companies are not in a strong position relative to the downstream auto companies. Therefore, they are often subjected to “clamping qi†and corporate profits are bound to decline. Currently, the industry generally believes that the rise and fall in the price of natural rubber is the key to whether tire companies can stabilize their profits. Where Some companies even put forward the view that “Corporate earns money is the key to looking at natural rubber pricesâ€. Regarding the fluctuation of rubber raw material prices, Shen Zhongrong, chairman of Hangzhou Zhongce Group, believes that the causes of the drastic fluctuations in natural rubber prices are very complicated. From the point of view of the spot, demand growth, supply imbalance, stock hoarding, etc. are natural rubber prices. The reason for the big drop. The new financial reporter also learned from Zhu Xiuyan, secretary-general of the Natural Rubber Association, that China's natural rubber production is weak, and lack of pricing power in the international market is one of the main factors in the instability of natural rubber prices. From the perspective of natural rubber production in China, production resources are not abundant. In 2011, China's natural rubber consumption was 3.4 million tons, while China's own production of natural rubber was only about 720,000 tons, and about 270 million tons needed to be imported from abroad. China's Yunnan, Hainan and Guangdong provinces are the main producing areas of natural rubber, but the natural rubber yield in these areas is only 58% of the production areas in Southeast Asian countries; geographical factors and insufficient investment have become an important cause of the impact of China's natural rubber production. The desire for price management Natural rubber prices fluctuate widely, and it is difficult to grasp market trends. This is a consensus among many people in the rubber industry. Liu Bo, an analyst at Green Futures Energy & Chemical Industry, told the New Finance Reporter that after the international financial crisis, natural rubber was used as a commodity raw material and its finances. Attributes have also begun to increase, which undoubtedly increases the challenges to the management capabilities of related companies in China. For tire manufacturers to manage the price of rubber raw materials Shen Jinrong put forward his views as an industry veteran, in his view, the domestic tire companies are still relatively passive in the management of rubber raw materials prices, the main form of spot trading price negotiations. At present, many large-scale tire companies have the move to extend the industrial chain to the upstream, such as the establishment of their own trading company for rubber trade, which can dilute the operating costs of the company's downstream tire companies. Shen Jinrong also suggested that tire companies set up their own stocks of rubber reserves, which is another strategy to stabilize operations in price fluctuations. At present, the normal production inventory of tire companies is about 15-20 days. Large-scale tire companies or enterprises can establish a common stabilization fund to collect and store natural rubber or to stabilize the price of natural rubber. Tyre companies can unite to increase the pricing power of natural rubber. Shen Jinrong also said that tire companies' awareness of the natural rubber futures market is deepening. In addition to paying attention to the trend of futures prices on a daily basis, companies have also begun to participate in the derivatives market. Taking the stabilization fund of natural rubber as an example, it can do a great job in the futures market and become one of the effective ways to suppress rubber prices. Liu Bo, an analyst at Green Futures Energy & Chemical Industry, told the New Financial Reporter that tire companies should also strengthen the control of rubber raw material prices from the following two aspects. One is to further extend the industrial chain, tire companies can participate in rubber production enterprises, and even can participate in shares in Southeast Asian countries. Rubber garden. This will reduce the import cost of natural rubber. International tire giants such as Goodyear and Bridgestone have opened their own natural rubber production bases in Southeast Asia. Therefore, compared to domestic tire processing companies, they are not sensitive to the rise in natural rubber prices. On the other hand, companies can actively cooperate with futures companies and make good use of the natural rubber futures market. With the rapid development of China's futures market, the function of futures companies is also gradually strengthened. Many futures companies provide enterprises with various channels of financing and maintenance services. The tire companies use the futures market for risk hedging, or balance the price of rubber, the cost is relatively low. Policy support is indispensable To improve the current situation, we must rely on the market as well as rely on national policies. The relevant competent authorities should give certain policy preferences and industrial support. For example, Zhu Xiuyan believes that strengthening the production of rubber-producing plants from the production countries and increasing the productivity of silver chrysanthemum and gutta percha is a new way of thinking and a new way to break the monopoly of natural rubber supply. Liu Bo analyzed with the new financial reporter that, in terms of policy support, lowering the import tariff of natural rubber is a practical and feasible method, which can obviously help tire companies in the short-to-medium term. At present, the import tariff of natural rubber is as high as 20%, which is much higher than the average profit of downstream companies. In the current national policy of structural tax cuts, it should consider reducing such import tariffs and effectively reduce the burden on enterprises. At the same time, he also believes that encouraging enterprises to participate in the risk management of the derivatives market must first of all further improve the derivatives market. Although China currently has the largest natural rubber futures market in the world, due to certain flaws in the design and delivery system of futures contracts, natural rubber futures delivery is more conducive to long, so natural rubber futures prices are often more vulnerable to speculation by funds, and can not reflect international On the actual supply and demand situation of natural rubber in China and in China. Changing the current design of natural rubber futures contracts to make it more rationalized, fully and truly reflect the actual needs of the majority of plastic companies, in order to make natural rubber futures prices better serve the national economy.
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