Tight supply of spare parts or negative growth in the auto market in the second quarter

On April 11, the earthquake in Japan was completed in January. With the exhaustion of parts and components inventory, the impact of some domestic car enterprises has become increasingly prominent.

This month, most domestic Japanese joint ventures have plans to reduce production, and some European and American brands have also been affected. According to some Shanghai auto dealers, some non-Japanese joint venture brands such as Shanghai GM and Shanghai Volkswagen will implement production reduction plans for some models in April and May.

Under the influence of Japan’s earthquake and high crude oil prices, Rao Da, Secretary General of the National Association of Passenger Vehicles, predicts that the domestic auto market may experience negative growth in the second quarter of this year after a two-year increase in sales.

Europe and the United States Department of models to reduce production?

“Cruz sales in April are expected to be 15,000 units. In May, manufacturers can only supply about 6,000 vehicles. In June, there may be more than 7,000 vehicles in May. There will be more than 7,000 vehicles.” Shanghai General Motors Chevrolet brand distributor in Shanghai The manager told the "First Financial Daily" reporter, "The main reason is the impact of the Japanese earthquake and the maintenance of the production line in May."

A person close to Shanghai GM told the reporter that the communication component (TCU) on the Cruze transmission control module came from a Japanese partner. The company was damaged by a strong earthquake and has not yet returned to normal production. Even if it can resume production in the near future, it will be subject to restrictions. Due to logistics and other factors, it is not possible to supply accessories to car dealers within the last 2 months.

According to industry analysts, Shanghai GM is not only affected by the Cruze model of the Chevrolet brand, but also models such as the British Lang GT. With the reduction of key spare parts, Shanghai GM Buick estimates that it will first ensure the production of the new Regal and the new LaCrosse. The sales value of these two models to the Buick brand is relatively large.

Not only was the GM joint venture affected, Chang'an Ford's new Fiesta and Chang'an Mazda's Ma 2 and Ma 3 were affected by the fact that parts such as plastic parts came from Japanese auto parts. “The new Fiesta will be supplied by 6,500 vehicles in March. The supply in April has already been reduced to about 3,500 units. In May, supply may return to 4,000 to 5,000 vehicles.” Chang An Ford, general manager of a Shanghai dealer, told reporters.

In today's global automotive procurement, there are few car companies that can be alone. Some models of Volkswagen’s two joint ventures have already shown some signs. “Langyi 1.4T and Touran 1.4T, which had previously had discounts of RMB 2,000 to RMB 3,000, do not have current vehicles, and they have to wait at least three months before transiting to wait longer. "Shanghai Volkswagen, a sales manager in Shanghai, said.

“There are two Volkswagen vehicle turbine suppliers, one is Ishikawa Soshima in Japan, and the other is BorgWarner. Japan's parts manufacturers are damaged by the earthquake, may cause the public to reduce production in a certain period of time.” A Borg Warner's former marketing department told reporters.

However, public relations officials from companies such as Shanghai GM and Shanghai Volkswagen denied the “production cuts” statement from terminal distributors.

Japanese brands generally cut production in April. Just yesterday, they got a silver Corolla car. The lady was told by the salesman. It was fortunate that the car was bought a week later. Although the discount was 3,000 yuan less than before the earthquake, there was still a car available. Now There is no current car in the store. “We can't determine the delivery time for new customers. Starting in March, Toyota will reduce production. In April, it's even more severe. I heard that the sources of supply in May will be even more tense.” FAW Toyota told a sales consultant in Shanghai, a dealership store, that she would be short of production.

In addition to the Japanese joint venture brand, the Japanese brands are the most affected. “We all said that Infiniti had halved the ring supply in April and the supply in stores was also halved in April.

"The sales manager of an Infiniti dealership told reporters. Lexus is also like this. "We are now recovering all product lines. "Lexus, a general manager of a dealership in Shanghai, told reporters.

Although Toyota Motor Corp. said on the 8th that it will resume full production of 17 domestic factories suspended due to the earthquake from April 18 onwards, the production of all models will resume, but the operating rate can only reach about 50% of the production plan before the earthquake. The current plan is to fully resume production before April 27, after which the factory will enter the "May 1" Golden Week and Spring Break. As for the production plan after the holiday, the company will make a decision based on the supply of spare parts.

"This year, the Japanese brand's market share will definitely decline. The Japanese brand domestic car's market share in March has dropped, probably by 1%," said Rao Da.

The negative growth in the second quarter may not be controlled by dealers. The Japanese earthquake has also changed the rhythm of the auto market to a certain extent this year. "Cruzz last year had a discount rate of about 9,000 yuan. Now the discount is about 7,000 yuan. In May and June, it may be only 3,000 to 5,000 yuan. There is even no concession. Insufficient car sources cause supply to keep up with demand. It is to look at stocks." The general manager of the Shanghai GM Chevrolet dealership told reporters.

In the face of uncertainties, some brand dealers began to consider the sale of goods and re-release models and prices based on market conditions. “We are considering storing more cars and recouping them in advance, but we do not know how much the impact of the earthquake in Japan is, and we do not dare to stock too much, so we can't hold back the rhythm,” said a Dongfeng Nissan sales manager in Shanghai.

Rao Da believes that many parts of China's automotive electronics are sourced from Japan, and the supply of one component or component will be reduced or suspended, and vehicle manufacturers will have to reduce or stop production. In March, the manufacturers had a certain amount of inventory, and the production was not affected. In April, the Japanese joint ventures generally lowered their production schedules, and new product launches were postponed. It is estimated that the impact in early May will reach a maximum. In addition, the Japanese earthquake also involved automobile production and sales of most domestic joint ventures and domestic-funded enterprises, resulting in an increase in the negative growth of the passenger car market in the second quarter.