On April 6, 2011, the National Development and Reform Commission announced that it will increase the maximum retail price of refined oil from midnight on April 7. The industry believes that although the price adjustment is large, it is not enough to hedge against the recent increase in international oil prices. Since the last round of oil price adjustment (February 20), international oil prices have risen more than 20% cumulatively. Among them, on the 4th of April, the North Sea Brent crude oil futures prices rose 1.16 US dollars to close at 122.22 US dollars a barrel, and a record closing high since September 2008. ZhuoChuang information and data show that as of April 5, the domestic crude oil reference rate of the three places of crude oil has reached a rate of change of 14.38%, far exceeding the 4% price adjustment “red line†prescribed by the pricing mechanism. In the eyes of observers, it was the international oil price that continued to “high fever†broke through the “psychological bottom line†in which price regulators postponed price adjustment in order to control inflation, and finally prompted the latter to announce the price adjustment decision on the first day after the Ching Ming Festival. In fact, as early as March 22, when the “22 working days +4%†price adjustment conditions were met, the price adjustment window was opened. Since then, the price adjustment in the market is expected to continue to increase, and the wind of speculation has intensified. Taking the Shandong refinery, which is known as the benchmark for the price of gasoline and diesel in the country, it has pushed the wholesale price of No. 93 gasoline by more than 600 yuan in just one month. “The price adjustment can be said to be unexpected and reasonable. We chose to adjust the price on the first working day after the Ching Ming Festival, and after the central bank has just announced an interest rate hike, we can see that the relevant departments have chosen "The painstaking efforts have been made." Zhao Jingmin, an analyst at the business community, said that on the one hand, the Peak has already passed the Qingming Festival. At this time, price adjustment can reduce the impact of oil price increases on people's travel; on the other hand, raising interest rates first can also increase the impact of refined oil prices on inflation. Get a certain buffer. In his opinion, the price adjustment immediately following the rate hike shows the government’s determination and confidence in controlling inflation. At the same time, price adjustment is also conducive to stabilizing the market mentality, timely release of resources and ease the tension between gasoline and diesel. Li Qiang, an analyst at Zhuo Chuang, believes that the central bank raised the benchmark interest rate for deposits and loans in order to tighten the social circulation currency, so as to digest the inflationary pressure brought about by the price adjustment in advance and restrain the increase in oil prices. The chain of costs rose in various industries. “The current pricing mechanism of refined oil is relatively transparent. In the case of a recent increase in the direction of international oil prices, it is easy for refined oil suppliers to use time and policy arbitrage. As a result, the supply of refined oil products in the domestic market is artificially tight and the amplitude of modulation will be advanced. The market is digesting. The central bank's interest rate hikes have tightened the speculative funds in the refined oil market to a certain extent, which will help further rationalize the supply and demand structure of domestic refined oil products and improve the domestic refined oil market mechanism, Li Qian said. “In the long run, speculative sentiment will be weakened after the price adjustment dust settles, and demand will also be restrained. This will also help the international oil price drop.†Lu Bin said. It is worth noting that since the price adjustment is still not enough to hedge against the recent increase in international oil prices, the refinery profits can only be maintained at very low levels. CBI Vice President and Chief Analyst Zhong Jian told this reporter that in the past, each time the domestic price adjustment was made, the price adjustment range was determined by balancing the relationship between the profitability of domestic refineries and the national economy. However, due to the recent tightening of the price adjustment, the refining profit has been reduced to a relatively low level. Therefore, under the premise that international oil prices will continue to rise in the future, if oil refining profit is still used as a reference indicator to adjust the enthusiasm of oil operators, Therefore, there will be very limited room for adjusting the tone and reducing the domestic oil price. “According to estimates, after the price adjustment, the gross profit of domestic oil refining companies is basically zero, but sales margins calculated by sales companies are more than 900 yuan. For large-scale oil and gas companies with integrated production and marketing, the distribution of profits between production and sales companies can be fully adopted. Internal measures to increase the ex-factory price to reduce or eliminate refining losses, and do not have to use the refining profitability as a pricing reference. Zhong Jian said. In his opinion, the State Development and Reform Commission's statement on the “state’s requirement that PetroChina and Sinopec make full use of the internal and downstream interest adjustment mechanism of oil companies and balance the interests of various internal sectors†was also hinted at by the National Development and Reform Commission.
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