[ Instrument R&D of Instrument Network ] The Northwest Pacific Subtropical High (referred to as the Western Pacific Subtropical High) is a key circulation affecting the weather and climate in East and Southeast Asia. It determines the intensity and location of Meiyu precipitation, as well as the generation and path of tropical cyclones and typhoons in the Northwest Pacific. Extreme events such as droughts, floods, and heat waves brought about by the summer monsoon anomaly and typhoon landings greatly threaten the lives, property, and social and economic development of hundreds of millions of local people. With the increasing concentration of anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases, accurate information on the future changes of the Western Pacific Subtropical High is very important for countries and regions in the region to respond to climate change and formulate reasonable mitigation and adaptation measures. However, the previous 35 studies of the climatology based on the fifth coupled model comparison plan (CMIP5) for the Western Pacific Subtropical High Projection study, can not give a consistent answer to increase or decrease.
Recently, a study led by the Institute of Atmospheric Physics of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and published in the journal Nature-Communications on June 4 found that the uncertainty of the West Pacific Subtropical High's forecast is mainly due to the historical sea surface temperature simulation of each model Systematic bias; based on emergent constraint, after using the observed sea surface temperature to correct the deviation of the model, under a high-emission scenario (RCP8.5), more models give the West Pacific Subtropical High The enhanced results have reduced the existing uncertainty in estimates by 45%. The new results mean that the East Asian summer monsoon will be stronger and the monsoon precipitation will be more in the future, but the landing typhoons may be reduced. It also means that the risk of high temperature heat waves in eastern and southern China will increase. The research partners include the Hadley Centre of the British Meteorological Office and Nanjing University.
"The climate model is an indispensable tool for predicting future changes, but affected by the level of technological development, the current model results are still uncertain. In terms of climate prediction, its manifestation is that different models respond to the same radiative forcing. Differences, even if the model will gradually improve, the accompanying uncertainty will still exist. How to provide optimal forecasting information for decision makers based on the current model level to better respond to and adapt to climate change is an important research topic. "The first author and corresponding author of the article, Chen Xiaolong, associate researcher of the Institute of Atmosphere, Chinese Academy of Sciences, said. Dr. Peili Wu of the Hadley Centre of the British Meteorological Office is the co-author of the paper. He said: "Considering the importance of the Western Pacific Subtropical High in the East Asian climate, this is an important step in the right direction. It needs to be noted The observed data reflects only one realization of the many possibilities of a complex climate system, and there will still be more or less uncertainty in the results after using observation constraints." Wang Minghuai, co-author and professor of Nanjing University, commented: "Based on Emerging constraints method, this work not only reduces the uncertainty of the future forecast of the Western Pacific Subtropical High, but also further points out the two main sources of uncertainty in the future forecast, for the future to further improve the climate model of the Western Pacific Subtropical High Simulation provides direction."
This research work is jointly undertaken by the “Silk Road Environment†strategic pilot project of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (approval number XDA20060102), the National Natural Science Foundation of China Youth Project (approval number 41605057), the International Partner Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (approval number 134111KYSB20160031), and the Newton Foundation CSSP-China project. Funded.
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