Macroeconomic environment has a good influence on the commercial vehicle industry


Author: Wang Weidong

The national economy will continue to maintain a high GDP growth rate

Comprehensively related to macro research institutions, China's GDP will continue to maintain a relatively high growth rate from 2006 to 2015, but the growth rate will decline compared with the previous three years. In 2006 and 2007, the rate of decline will be faster, and it will rebound slightly in 2008. After entering the steady growth. By 2015, China's total GDP will reach 4.29935 trillion yuan (the current year's price, equivalent to about 156.936 billion yuan in 1990), and it will quadruple the level in 2000.

Per capita GDP maintained a stable and synchronous growth. In 2003, it broke through 1,000 US dollars for the first time, reached 1,700 US dollars in 2005, and was expected to exceed 2,500 U.S. dollars in 2015 (the exchange rate of the yuan against the U.S. dollar, which was estimated by 8.27 before 2004 and 8.11 after 2005). .

The properties of commercial vehicle production data determine that its demand has a strong correlation with the growth rate of GDP. Some economic analysts have made the following rough predictions based on the model: The demand for trucks will increase when the GDP growth rate increases by 1%. 16%, and vice versa.

Relative to the increase or decrease of GDP, the expansion or contraction of commercial vehicle and heavy truck sales is more obvious. From 1990 to 2005, commercial vehicles have Ks=-0.5 to 3.5; heavy trucks have Ks=-4.0 to 10. (where Ks is the expansion or contraction factor: Ks = sales growth of commercial vehicles or heavy trucks / GDP growth rate) IFA and GDP keep growing at the same time

Historical statistics show that there is a clear correlation between changes in IFA growth rates and changes in GDP growth. According to the spirit of the "two sessions" in March, China's economic growth during the "11th Five-Year Plan" period will adopt an intrinsic mode of development and the investment structure will be adjusted. Investment will continue to grow, but investment growth will slow down. The forecast result is that the investment growth rate in the next 10 years will decline in waves.

Like GDP, there are car analysts who, based on the model, have roughly judged the relationship between truck demand and IFA: for every 10 billion yuan increase in fixed asset investment, the corresponding demand for trucks will increase by 15,000 vehicles.

In addition, in March, Premier Wen Jiabao of the “two sessions” pointed out in the government work report that the intensity of new rural construction will increase, and infrastructure construction in rural areas will be the focus of investment. Therefore, the future development of the rural market is the direction of commercial vehicle development.

Imports and Exports Achieve Steady Growth

This year is the last year of the transition period after China's accession to the WTO. Global economic integration will promote the sustained development of international trade.

Statistics show that in recent years, China’s foreign trade has developed strongly and its growth rate has been on a wave. According to the forecast of the national macro-research department, in the coming period, the actual dependence of the Chinese economy on foreign trade will continue to increase, implying that foreign trade will continue to maintain its strong growth momentum.

The rapid development of China's import and export trade will increase the demand for transportation, which will have a greater effect on the market demand for trucks, especially container tractors.

Per capita disposable income steadily increases the consumer price index CPI is very small

Statistics of historical data show that as the per capita GDP has been increasing year by year, the per capita disposable income of urban residents in China has also rapidly increased year by year, and in recent years it has maintained a growth rate of more than 10%. In 2005, the per capita disposable income of urban residents reached 10,493 yuan, or about 1,300 US dollars. However, the per capita net income of farmers in our country has been growing slowly. In 2005, it was only 3,255 yuan, or about 400 US dollars.

In addition, from the historical data, the trend of changes in CPI and economic fluctuations have a greater correlation. Foreign experience also shows that inflation is pro-cyclical. According to forecast, GDP will fluctuate in the next ten years but the volatility will be small. It is expected that the economy will maintain a moderate inflation and the CPI will remain between 1% and 3%.

The per capita disposable income of urban areas has been increasing year by year, and the basic stability of the consumer price index (CPI) indicates that the purchasing power of urban residents has increased. As a result, users have also increased their pursuit of high-performance and high-tech goals such as commercial vehicle safety and comfort. This is the reason why heavy trucks with stronger configuration and higher prices, such as Sinotruk HOWO and Hualing, were stronger against the market in 2005.

However, as China’s per capita GDP and per capita disposable income are still far below the level of consumption starting points for high-performance and high-tech products for commercial vehicles in developed countries in Europe and America (the starting point level in Europe and the United States is US$3,000 per capita disposable income), we believe that : At least during the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan” period, the demand characteristics of most of the Chinese customers for heavy-duty truck products still focus on practical technologies, and their functions are simple. At the expense of comfort, they obtain low-priced products.

The RMB exchange rate has remained stable for the past 10 years. There may be a slight increase in the future but it is unlikely that the RMB will rise significantly.

The exchange rate of the renminbi has basically stabilized since 1995, because in the last 10 years China has adopted a policy of maintaining a fixed exchange rate for the U.S. dollar. Since July 2005, the RMB exchange rate has appreciated slightly. It is expected that domestic demand will remain weak during the next 10 years, while foreign trade will continue to maintain a large surplus. Under such circumstances, the RMB exchange rate will appreciate slightly, but it is unlikely that there will be a large appreciation.

Most experts believe that the appreciation of the renminbi has a greater "disadvantage" than a "profit" for the commercial vehicle industry. Because if the appreciation rate of the renminbi continues to increase, it will be a serious blow to the export of commercial vehicles in China. At present, the export of commercial vehicles in China is taking a cheap route. The continued appreciation of the renminbi will inevitably cause export prices to rise, thus losing its competitive advantage. In addition, foreign products will also be more involved in the domestic market competition.

It is evident from this that the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate in the future will be conducive to the export of China's commercial vehicle products and the seizure of foreign markets, such as Southeast Asian, Middle East and South American commercial vehicle markets.

Industry level will continue to increase

Historical data shows that the proportion of the primary industry has continuously declined, and the proportion of the tertiary industry has continued to rise.

It is predicted that the proportion of the secondary industry will remain stable and grow slightly before 2010, when China's industrialization level is not high. After 2010, it will gradually decline on the basis of basically maintaining stability. The improvement of the industrial level will be mainly reflected in the decline in the share of the primary industry, the increase in the share of the tertiary industry, and the structural adjustment within the secondary industry.

Changes in the industrial structure will bring about changes in the types of transport, the quality of transport, and the volume of transport. At least 10 years in the future, while the total volume of cargo transportation continues to increase, the volume of industrial manufactured goods, general consumer goods, and high-value-added goods and their share in the transportation of goods will increase steadily. Such cargoes have high requirements on the quality of transportation and have a strong ability to bear freight. The growth of their transportation volume will directly lead to an increase in demand for medium and heavy-duty special vehicles.

Based on the above analysis of China's political and economic environment and its relevance to the development of commercial vehicle industry, the author believes that: First, the rational regression will be the development characteristics of the domestic commercial vehicle market in 2006 and 2007, especially the heavy truck market. In the past few years, with the GDP growth rate of 8% to 10%, the demand for heavy trucks increased by more than 30%. This phenomenon is obviously contrary to the law of market development and is doomed to be impossible to continue for a long time. It is not surprising that the heavy-duty market in 2005 has fallen sharply, but it is reasonable.

Secondly, historically, the high growth of domestic commercial vehicles has mainly come from high investment growth. In March, the "two sessions" clearly stated that it is necessary to adjust the proportional relationship between investment and consumption. "Expanding domestic demand" will be the key to supporting economic development in the future. It is necessary to change the situation in the past that excessively relied on investment to promote economic growth. The drop in investment will bring about a growth in the truck market, especially the growth of the heavy truck market. It will no longer be possible for high-speed growth for many years to continue, but trucks will continue to grow, but the growth rate will return to normal and reasonable levels. Therefore, it is expected that the market demand for commercial vehicles in 2006 and 2007 will remain in a sluggish state. The average annual growth rate of heavy trucks in these two years should be within 10%. In 2008, the demand for heavy trucks in the Olympic Games will increase, and the growth rate will increase. Then it will return to a stable low-speed growth stage.

Third, during the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan” period, under the background of the low level of industrialization in China, the industrialization process is far from completed, and the secondary industry’s share in GDP is high, the domestic heavy truck market will also deepen structural adjustment, and its development characteristics will Mainly for the upgrading of products, upgrading of product quality, rather than a simple scale expansion. From the perspective of specific models, due to the rapid development of import and export trade and the promotion of the industrial level, the demand for medium and heavy-duty special vehicles and container tractors will increase.

Fourth, as per capita GDP and per capita disposable income increase year by year, the market will have a certain demand for higher-capacity, higher-performance, higher-price heavy trucks. However, this is a slow process, and it is expected that demand will increase in the near-term and mid-term. Larger trucks are still simple, practical and cost-effective products. In addition, due to the basic stability of the RMB exchange rate in the future, the export market is still a market that domestic commercial vehicle companies should not ignore.

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