According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China, the apparent consumption of lubricants in China reached 10.813 million tons in 2010, a year-on-year increase of 13.1%. Compared with the global demand of 40 million tons of lubricant oil market, it accounts for about a quarter of the total. This proportion means that China's over-consumption of lubricants, or is it another hidden cause, China's oil market cake really so big? With questions, the reporter began the road to proof. Xu Jian, a marketing expert who worked in the lube market for more than 20 years and head of the Great Wall Lubricant Marketing Department, told reporters: “In 2010, the actual consumption of the Chinese lubricants market was around 6.8 million tons.†Subsequently, the reporter will verify the same issue. For other major lubricant manufacturers in the domestic market, almost all of them have measured the actual consumption of the Chinese lubricants market in 2010 between 6.5 million tons and 7 million tons. It turned out that 6.8 million tons is not a statement of Great Wall Lubricants, but also the basic judgment of the domestic lubricant industry. The basic judgement of the actual consumption of lubricants by major lubricant manufacturers differs from the data disclosed by the National Bureau of Statistics of China in more than 4 million tons. The gap between them is quite wide. Why is there such a huge difference between the two? How is the gap of more than 4 million tons produced? What kind of mystery is hidden in the middle? Is this the collective misjudgment of lubricant manufacturers or the Chinese lubricants market? "Is inflated? We may wish to outline the appearance of apparent consumption and restore the true needs of China's lubricant market. This may be an interesting and valuable topic for people in the lubricant industry and those concerned about the development of Chinese lubricants. Solve the confusion of apparent consumption: apparent consumption ≠actual consumption Apparent consumption = production + imports - exports. In 2010, the output of China's lubricants market was 8.569 million tons, the import volume was 2.45 million tons, and the export volume was 206,000 tons. This resulted in the apparent consumption of 10.813 million tons of Chinese lubricants in 2010. According to a related person in the lubricants industry, “The apparent consumption of lubricants is based on the apparent value of the actual consumption, which can be used to count the consumption. This value will have a certain gap with the actual consumption. Duplicate calculations during the production and import volume of lubricant manufacturers are the main reasons for this discrepancy." A simple example is the transaction between lubricant manufacturers. A manufacturer and B manufacturer trade, and B manufacturer sells the product to the actual users on the market. If A manufacturer and B manufacturer deal with base oil or semi-finished products, Then both A and B vendors will count the transaction volume in their production volume, which results in double counting of production volume. In addition, among the 2.45 million tons of imported materials, according to relevant sources who have been engaged in the international trade of lubricants for many years, about 2.2 million tons are base oils. Base oils are processed and produced into finished oils by domestic lubricant manufacturers, which are included in the production volume, while the consumed base oils are still counted in the import volume, which also results in double counting. It is not difficult to see from the fog of apparent consumption that the apparent consumption reflects the production status among various lubricant companies and between industries and the scale of internal trade between the lubricant industry production and the industry. Apparent consumption and actual consumption are two different concepts. Apparent consumption deductions and other losses and warehousing are the real actual consumption. The apparent consumption of “weight loss†is China’s lubrication. The actual capacity of the oil market, the actual capacity of the Chinese lubricants market in 2010 was 6.8 million tons collectively judged by major domestic and foreign lubricant manufacturers. Identifying Different Consumption: Insight into Macroeconomic and Industrial Markets The level of economic development directly leads to the cold and warm nerves of the lubricant market, and lubricants are the vane of economic development. An expert who has been tracking research on the global lubricants market for many years believes: “The ratio of economic growth to actual growth in lubricants is about 2:1.†In 2010, the global economy grew by 4.75%, and global lubricants demand increased by 1.5%. Although this exceeds the 2:1 category, it is because developed countries such as Japan and the United States have basically entered the era of synthetic oil and extended their machinery. Oil, oil, and other oil change cycles, the growth of the lubricants market is gradually slowing. With the refinement of machinery and equipment and the upgrading of oil products driven by energy saving and environmental protection, this trend will be further enhanced, and even the demand for lubricants will increase. Negative growth. In the Asia-Pacific region, the Middle East and Africa in the period of rapid industrialization, the demand for lubricants increased by about 3%, and the sales volume of China's lubricants reached 6.8 million tons, an increase of about 5%, all reflecting the economic growth rate. Therefore, whether it is a policy maker or a market competitor, understanding actual consumption amounts to grasping the means and tools to gain insight into the barometer of economic development. In fact, both apparent consumption and actual consumption have their important value and significance. For the macro-control departments, through apparent consumption as reference data, they can gain insight into the scale and status of production and trade in the lube market, measure and measure the industrial structure of the industry, as well as production and trade systems, and then guide the industry to optimize the industrial structure. The construction of an energy-saving and environmentally friendly production system will promote the transformation and upgrading of China's lubricant industry. For lubricating oil manufacturers, if the substance and connotation of apparent consumption can not be clearly identified, misinterpretation will lead to misjudgment of the market, leading to blind expansion of production capacity, resulting in overcapacity and missed business opportunities. Moreover, there is an important reference for the industry's operating conditions reflected by the apparent consumption, which helps the lubricant manufacturers to formulate appropriate business strategies and ensure the competitive advantages of production and sales. Of course, for lubricant manufacturers, the actual consumption has a more direct reference value. Through the actual consumption to understand the needs of consumers and the market share, the corresponding market goals and competitive strategies are formulated to adjust and upgrade the product structure. Renewal and other measures to deal with increasingly fierce market competition. Therefore, it is self-evident that understanding the importance of apparent consumption and actual consumption is a basic skill and a compulsory course for oil market participants, especially decision makers.
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