Heavy truck sales rebounded in June against the market rebound in the second half of the "crisis"


In the first half of the year, the recovery of the macro economy was weak and the growth of the real estate industry slowed, but truck sales rebounded against the market. However, this good day may not be sustainable in the second half of the year. Not long ago, the "money shortage" triggered by domestic tightening monetary policy has caused some large heavy truck dealers to feel the crisis.

On July 5, the State Council issued the "Guiding Opinions on Financial Support for Economic Structural Adjustment and Transformation and Upgrading" and its interpretation, setting the tone for "stability" in the second half of the year. This means that the overall tighter monetary liquidity in the second half will be less relaxed than in the first half.

The continuous tightening of monetary policy will directly affect the start of fixed asset investment projects. The heavy truck market in the second half of the year will face greater challenges.

Data: Upside Down

In June this year, although it has entered the traditional off-season from the point of view of the month, but the heavy-duty truck market is uncharacteristically, new car wholesale sales are still relatively hot - about 72,000 heavy trucks were sold in the month, a substantial increase of 44.6% from 49786 units in the same period of last year. In May, there was only a slight drop of 6.8% (in the three years from 2010 to 2012, the sales volume in June fell by more than 10% from the previous month).

Industry analysts believe that the better market performance in June this year has a lot to do with the heavy truck manufacturers and distributors' expectations for the implementation of the National IV emission standards on July 1. According to the requirements of the Ministry of Environmental Protection, on July 1 this year, new vehicles for the National III heavy-duty vehicles will no longer be allowed to sell. Based on this policy expectation, some manufacturers and regional distributors have adopted advanced billing. In the future, it will be possible to ensure that the new vehicle of State III will be on the local market) to circumvent the marketing strategy of the new regulation of State IV on July 1. This "pre-consumption" behavior directly promoted sales in the heavy truck market in June.

Taken together, in the first half of this year, the heavy-duty truck market accumulated a total of 396,600 vehicles of various types, an increase of 7.5% year-on-year, and the growth rate further expanded.

The market structure of the three heavy armors of domestic heavy trucks is still obvious. As the “oldest three” of the first camp, Dongfeng continues to maintain the first place, with sales of 86,900 units in January-June, an increase of 8.4% year-on-year; Ten thousand vehicles, an increase of 6.5% year-on-year; China Heavy Truck sold 62,600 vehicles, a year-on-year decrease of 4.6%.

In the second camp, Fukuda maintained the fourth in the industry with 5,655,000 units, a year-on-year growth rate of 21.5%; and Shaanxi Automobile's cumulative sales volume reached 5,100 units, an increase of 1.9% over the same period last year.

In the third camp, Beiben continued to decline sharply, accumulatively selling 10,839 vehicles, which was a decrease of 30.2% compared with the same period of last year; and SAIC Iveco Hongyan’s growth rate reached the first in the industry, with 14636 heavy trucks sold in the first 6 months, up from the same period of last year. 61.5%; Hualing Xingma accumulatively sold 13,342 vehicles, the second largest increase in the industry, an increase of 56.4%; Jianghuai heavy trucks sold 17,700 units, an increase of 28.3%, the third largest increase in the industry.

If the sales volume in June is supported by the advanced consumer vehicle III, then in the next few months, this situation will not be further concentrated. As domestic oil products and other supporting facilities are not in place, the domestic need to gradually implement the sub-regional implementation. Country IV. This kind of advancement in the future market won't last long.

What actually affects the development of domestic heavy trucks is the domestic macroeconomic development.

Forecast: Compactness Day

According to Bloomberg data, the liquidity squeeze in the Chinese money market may reduce the credit growth this year by 750 billion yuan ($122 billion), which is equivalent to the size of Vietnam's economy. Domestic implementation of tightening monetary policy led to “money shortage”, and the heavy-duty truck industry felt the same. The most intuitive feeling was that the car could not be sold.

The Zhangjiagang Yongda Sales and Service Center, which has group customers as the main customer group, was affected by the “money shortage” and sales volume dropped significantly. Lu Yongxing, general manager of Yongjia Sales and Service Center of Zhangjiagang, said: “The enterprise users want to buy cars are suspended, coupled with the company's operating conditions are not good, some projects have stopped, and some companies are in semi-discontinued state, the car can not use, We are here. Our company is dominated by group users, accounting for more than half of the total, and sales have dropped significantly."

At the same time, distributors in Shandong, Zhengzhou, and Zhanjiang also stated that the impact of the "money shortage" was mainly concentrated on the slowdown in bank lending rates.

According to statistics released by the National Bureau of Statistics, from January to May 2013, the national fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) was 1,311.11 billion yuan, a nominal increase of 20.4% year-on-year, and the growth rate was down by 0.2 percentage point from January to April. From a month-on-month perspective, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) increased by 1.43% in May. "Because of the 'money shortage', the project lacks money, there is no money for the driver, the driver has no money to pay the bank car loan, and the bank has no money." According to Lei Jianguo, the president of Xinjiang Di Lingjie, this is a vicious cycle. And it's very serious.

Opportunity: Structural Opportunities

At present, the new liquidity management policy adopted by the central bank shows that the government adheres to a stable monetary policy that controls incremental and active stocks. This also means that the overall liquidity tightening in the second half of the year will be less stringent than in the first half of the year. The economy will be dominated by stability.

On July 5, the State Council issued the "Guiding Opinions on Financial Support for Economic Structural Adjustment and Transformation and Upgrading" and its interpretation, and gave detailed explanations on key areas such as monetary policy and supervision of financial products. "Seeking stability" is the core opinion of the document.

In addition to the financial sector, the document also made explicit instructions on macroeconomic adjustments, including proposing support for projects under construction and infrastructure projects, as well as support for enterprises with overcapacity in different situations, etc. The overall adjustment and reform are stable.

Despite the tightening of the financial environment in the domestic market in the second half of the year, there are also optimistic investment hopes in the market. The economic system reforms and the transformation of economic development methods have made structural opportunities still exist.

According to the analysis of economists, reform and transformation need to be implemented by a forceful mechanism. The more stable the economy is, the greater the chances of successful reforms and transformations. Therefore, the more the market does not have an overall opportunity, the more attention is paid to structural opportunities.

Urbanization and real estate investment can promote the growth of industrial output and drive the recovery and prosperity of the commercial vehicle market. Yang Zaiyu, deputy secretary-general of the China Passenger Car Market Information Association, said that even if the central government does not issue or introduce relevant stimulus policies, the local governments in various parts of the country "expand investment is still the fastest and most effective way to ensure economic growth." In particular, the sale of land and real estate during the process of urbanization has become the top priority and focus of work for local governments.



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