Fertilizer prices fall and tariffs regulate market supply and demand

In recent days, domestic fertilizer prices have dropped significantly. Taking urea as an example, according to the data from the fertilizer network, the wholesale price of urea in Shandong in July this year was about 2,400 yuan per ton, compared with 2,350 yuan in August and now 2,000 yuan, down 16.7% from July. According to industry analysts, under the influence of factors such as increasing export special tariffs, fertilizer prices have fallen significantly. It is expected that the government will regulate the market price of fertilizers more by regulating market supply and demand in the future.
Export Tariff Increases Prices Declined WANG Jing, a senior analyst at Orient Securities, believes that the recent drop in fertilizer prices is closely related to the further increase in the special export tariffs on nitrogen fertilizer and synthetic ammonia on September 1. It has affected people’s expectations for the future of the fertilizer market, plus some other Factors such as the use of off-season arrivals and the fall in coal prices have caused a significant drop in fertilizer prices.
According to the Notice of the Customs Tariff Commission of the State Council adjusting the special export tariffs on fertilizer products, the special export tariffs on nitrogen fertilizers and synthetic ammonia will be raised to 150% from September 1, 2008, and will be implemented until December 31, 2008; From January 1 to December 31, a special export tariff of 100% will continue to be imposed on other fertilizers and fertilizers other than the above two products. In this way, the export tariff of urea reached 175% (its normal tariff is 35% from April 1 to September 30, 25% from October 1 to December 31), and the phosphorous fertilizer tax reaches 130%, compound fertilizer tariff From 125% to 130%. The implementation of special tariffs has made it almost impossible for companies to export chemical fertilizers. While exports have been greatly reduced, companies can only turn to the domestic market, so the relative increase in domestic market supply, changes in supply and demand, and price pressures increase.
After entering September, the domestic market basically entered the off-season fertilizer season, and the demand for agricultural fertilizers fell, which also formed a constraint on prices. In addition, the current domestic prices of production materials have generally declined. In particular, the decline in coal prices is also a restraint for fertilizer prices. Because coal is an important raw material for fertilizers, its price has fallen – although it is still modest at present, it has formed an expectation for consumers that the fall in coal prices will bring about a drop in the cost of fertilizer production, which will lead to a drop in prices.
Fertilizer prices will have a certain impact on fertilizer production companies. Lubei Chemical said that fertilizers are currently entering the off-season and prices are falling. Seasonal factors may affect the company's operations, but at present it will not be too large.
However, some industry insiders also analyzed that from the perspective of cost, despite the decline in coal prices, the overall fertilizer production costs are still relatively high, and with the arrival of fertilizer winter storage, fertilizer prices will not have much room for decline.
Customs regulation of supply and demand or a normal state Dongwu Securities analyst Hong Yuan said that the government’s goal of substantially increasing export tariffs is to restrict exports in order to ensure the supply and storage of fertilizers in the domestic market and to curb prices in the domestic market. During the winter season, if a large number of enterprises export, they may affect the storage and thus affect the use of fertilizer in the coming spring.
China is a big producer of fertilizers and a big consumer country. From the perspective of the total amount, the supply and demand of chemical fertilizers is basically balanced. According to the data from the Agricultural Resources Market Network, the apparent consumption of chemical fertilizers in China in 2007 was 57.46 million tons, while the output was 56.96 million tons. The year was imported 6.43 million tons and exports 5.95 million tons. However, there are significant differences among the varieties. For example, the output of urea and diammonium phosphate exceeds domestic demand by 5 million tons and 1.5 million tons, respectively, while potassium fertilizer is heavily dependent on imports, and the import volume accounts for about 70% of domestic consumption.
However, if the amount of chemical fertilizer exports is too large during a certain period, it will affect the supply and demand on the domestic market and cause fluctuations in fertilizer prices. According to the statistics of the Ministry of Finance, in the first quarter of this year, China's exports of monoammonium phosphate and diammonium totaled 735,000 tons, an increase of 103.6% year-on-year; exports of other phosphorus-containing compound (combined) fertilizers were 315,000 tons, an increase of 80%; exports of urea 2.285 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 282.2%. At the same time, prices in the domestic market have also risen significantly. According to the data from the National Development and Reform Commission price monitoring center researchers, in May this year, urea, diammonium phosphate, ammonium bicarbonate, and superphosphate were up 16.67%, 65.28%, 33.93%, and 50.94% respectively over the same period of last year. Of course, the increase in exports of chemical fertilizer companies is also due to the rapid increase in fertilizer prices in the international market, which is much higher than the prices in the domestic market. The data shows that in February of this year, the domestic price of urea was about 2,000 yuan, while the offshore price of urea in the Arabian Gulf was US$380 per ton, which was a year-on-year increase of 20.6%, and the combined RMB was about 2,700 yuan. Such a large price difference will inevitably lead to a substantial increase in exports.
Under this circumstance, the government played a role in curbing prices by increasing export tariffs, curbing fertilizer exports, and increasing domestic market supply. From the current situation, the effect is emerging.
Industry insiders have analyzed that since the beginning of this year, the government has repeatedly adjusted the export tariffs on fertilizers, especially since September, after maintaining or further raising special export tariffs, indicating that the regulatory thinking is changing. China's fertilizer price management system basically controls the ex-factory prices of chemical fertilizers, while market supply and demand and retail prices are regulated by the market. However, practice shows that it is very difficult to control prices simply. Judging from the situation this year, perhaps the government will shift more to regulate and control market supply and demand, and indirectly but effectively regulate market prices through supply and demand.

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